Checking in Before the Election
I thought I would provide a few thoughts BEFORE the election results are in. . .which could be Nov 5 around midnight OR some bit of time and days later. I hope this finds you “well and early voted” or well and headed to the booth on Tuesday. The election result has rarely been a major influencing factor on the financial markets. There has been, at times, a movement on the initial news, but that has been absorbed relatively quickly and ultimately a non-driver of any particular market direction in terms of a Democratic vs a republican win. We aren’t “worried”. In addition, I am a person who has historically had a feeling who was going to win (with a mixed record but I think I got it right more times than not). I literally have no “feeling” or prediction of who will win as our next President..................... Click here to read more →
A Brief Market Update Before Interesting Times Ahead
We have seen a broadening out of performance in the market more recently. The Magnificent 7 have had a modest reality check and the rest of the market . . .the S&P 493 as we call them. . . have had a generally decent run and are showing some catch-up. This was expected, but we simply didn't know in what timeframe. The behavior of just a handful of stocks has been at an extreme over the last year or so. Without predicting what is next, it is healthy to see broader “normalcy” enter back into things.The FED is a much maligned and criticized group of people. I happen to think they have done a meaningfully good job over the last several years at managing interest rates and the economy. They were late to begin raising rates again, but they certainly made up for lost time in 2022.................. Click here to read more →
Raymond James Market Thoughts
In July 2024, President Biden announced he would not seek re-election, making it the first time since 1968 that a sitting president has done so. This decision came after declining poll numbers and concerns about his ability to serve another term. Vice President Kamala Harris is now the likely Democratic nominee, adding uncertainty to the race. While Trump leads in the polls, Harris could boost Democratic enthusiasm. Despite these political changes, the economic outlook remains stable, with potential interest rate cuts expected later in the year............... Click here to read more →
August Observations
I was traveling in Texas a few days ago to visit with clients. Things I was REMINDED of: The hill country of Texas is one of the most beautiful sections of our country. I love time with clients and old friends – whether on the phone or in person. I greatly value and appreciate the relationships. Speaking more broadly of travel and time in cities, airports and various walks of life: People are generally good people. The media loves to find the controversial and, many times, the stand-out or negative stories. But the bottom line is that most people mean well, are willing to help or accommodate, and are at minimum, interested in being nice. . . hoping for the same from those around. Texas is also hot................. Click here to read more →
Keeping in Touch - Several Topics of Note
I’ve assembled notes and thoughts on SEVERAL topics of interest in these current days. As always, thanks for tuning in. There continues to be a “buzz” in this industry about Fiduciary responsibility. . .Looking out for a client’s best interest. We are currently on the cusp of industry regulations that require, believe it or not, a Financial Advisor to act in the client’s best interest. It is very interesting to me that there are deemed to be some circumstances where a Financial Advisor can conduct business with and for a client and is not necessarily required to have the client’s best interest at heart? Go figure. Our government agencies .............. Click here to read more →
Updated Thoughts as Spring Rolls In
The general stock market was up for the 1st quarter. Once again, only a handful of stocks continue to provide the majority of market gains. An impressive run for the small group of technology stocks. And most other parts of the market also inched upward and contributed some gains. I enjoy the Symphony. I readily admit, however, that I do not love all performances. Recently, we enjoyed Gershwin’s Rhapsody in Blue in full and I concluded THAT is Symphony that I love. When all instruments and sections of the orchestra make a beautiful contribution and it comes together so brilliantly and in accord, it is something to behold.............. Click here to read more →
Happy New Year 2024 - Wonder what will happen next?
For those of us in careers that deal with the financial markets, I guess most years are interesting. But as we said many times in 2023, it was a particularly interesting year that we watched unfold. News events and circumstances both domestically and around the world were significant. 98% of the stock market behaved about like the year dictated - Plenty of negative along with some positive and, until late November, pretty much flat for the year. Seven stocks that are now affectionately known as the “Magnificent 7” performed upward into a difficult to explain stratosphere because they were all connected in some important way with this arriving world of Artificial Intelligence and the significant impact this is going to have on our world as the days unfold. . .and I do say “days”, as computerized delivery of human thought and action very much HAS arrived in our daily existence and is proliferating more by the week and month. ............. Click here to read more →
Happy December, a Quote, and a Market Comment
As we acknowledge the passing of Charlie Munger this week – close friend/partner of Warren Buffett and a very wise, famed investor, I was perusing some quotes from the two of them from over the years. I ran across: Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree long ago. I find this a meaningful set of words for us all – Take a look around and see where you might plant a seed this week, month or Holiday season. The markets became a bit more “normal” over the month of November and early December. Interest rates have moved lower, inflation seems to be becoming in check, and the stock market is moving with more broad participation from across the board than earlier in the year when mostly 7 technology stocks carried the entire market. ............. Click here to read more →
Some Interesting Market Stats for 2023
I sat on a Raymond James Strategy call last week, and I was interested by several characteristics of this year’s market, as of recent days. The so called “Magnificent 7” are responsible for more than 100% of the S&P 500 return year-to-date. In other words, without those 7, the market is down for 2023. Almost HALF of stocks (47%) are down greater than 20%. Another 30% of stocks are down more than 10%. 2/3 of stocks are trading below their 200-day moving average.)............. Click here to read more →
Market Updates and Thoughts
As of late October, the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 averages are now negative for the year. S&P 500 and Nasdaq still up, but really only thanks to our tech stock few leaders that have carried the rest of the market. It has been an interesting year. I type these emails when I have something to say and, over recent months, just have not assembled much to share other than spectating on this year’s markets like everyone else. It’s fair to say there is “a lot” going on in the financial markets presently. The news of Israel-Gaza Strip turmoil is both very sad and also newly relevant to markets and adds to the drama currently at play. Interest rates – Rates have stayed stubbornly high, but the prediction remains that the Fed will succeed at calming the economic strength which is already happening, and rates will peak and then work their way back down. As we have said several times, there is opportunity in the bond market that remains, but while we wait we get to benefit from welcomed higher rates of return on our CDs, money markets, and bond yields in the meantime. It is nice to “get paid” 5-6% on our safe money while we wait for things to stabilize............ Click here to read more →
Taking a Look at 2023 - Mid Year
It was a 1st half of progress both in the bond market and the stock market. We are glad for it, but taking note of how narrow the stock market leadership has been. If you take a look at the attached chart, it shows how 6 stocks almost completely carried the S&P 500 (and the Nasdaq) for the 1st half. If we remove the 6-7 technology stocks that soared and look at the remaining S&P 493, we find a market that was flat and slightly down as of mid June. Not the worst thing, but not indicative of a healthy stock market. Those 6-7 stocks are all in the latest theme to run upward: the focus on AI (artificial intelligence) related technologies. And I know: “This one has staying power”. . . I hear it frequently. I know for sure that AI does have staying power as the future of tech, but it would be defying history if these actual high flying stocks did not take a breather at some point and ease backward more than a little. In the latter part of June, we saw much broader participation by the remainder of the market. ........... Click here to read more →
Reports and Market Thoughts for late October
Always sharing a variety of thoughts and hopefully useful material. . . Today, a few more of my own thoughts for those that want to know and sometimes ask for them. For those that do not, always no worries in deleting one of our many emails we receive in a day. Attached is our latest Investment Strategy Outlook and also this week’s Economic snapshot/commentary I thought worth forwarding. The Investment Strategy report does an excellent job of describing the current picture of things both domestically and globally. . .and then laying out what might happen in the financial markets. It also includes some commentary related to the upcoming elections. Alas, a quick summary of recent history: We experienced a substantial boom period of time after the lows of 2008-2009. Investors benefitted greatly all these years, even while.......... Click here to read more →
Social Security Increases Benefits by 8.7% for 2023
You may have seen this, but the Social Security Administration has announced a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to recipients’ monthly Social Security and Supplemental Security Income benefits. More than 65 million Americans will see the 8.7% increase in their payments beginning in January 2023. Let me also add that this increase happens automatically. You should not have to “do” anything or provide information. Unfortunately, this could be ripe for being taken advantage of by scammers and wrong-doers attempting to take advantage of senior adults. Stay vigilant! In addition to the COLA, the Social Security Administration also announced.......... Click here to read more →
Market Assessment and Report
There was a time when what was happening “elsewhere in the world” was not of major concern to us. Those are days far gone, as we see on the news and at the grocery store and the gas pump. The markets are struggling as the global picture strains. I hope this finds you well and I will have more thoughts ahead, but here is a timely report from Larry Adam, our Chief Investment Strategist and his group providing some commentary. I look forward to being in touch. We’ve been through adverse times before. We will get through this one. The one “nice” thing is that it is wonderful to see some very compelling entry points on many investments. Tremendous longer term opportunities coming to our reach........ Click here to read more →
Market Thoughts at This Point
I come into a plethora of Financial market commentaries, no doubt. If you’d like to see 3 or 5 or 7 of them, just let me know. Interesting times. . . led primarily by the Ukraine conflict but also inflation effects that were already in play and now exacerbated by the Ukraine effect. We have looked a lot at history of markets at times of conflict and, while there is certainly no crystal ball for this environment ahead, the history of occurrences supports that the markets experience a short term correction of some magnitude and that it remains short term. In historical instances, the markets were fine and rebounded generally within 6-12 months following....... Click here to read more →
Market Updates
So far in 2022, the markets have struggled. Economic uncertainty, higher interest rates, global and political concerns all rule the news. We remain in uncertain times. I do not try to predict the markets. . .most especially over short time periods. But we have been saying with conviction for a while now that the risk was higher. The world around us has been a challenging environment for quite a period of time. The only thing sorta glaring has been that the financial markets had not really reflected it, but instead largely ignored the environment thanks to attractive monetary conditions that the FED set up (and probably left in place too long). Stocks have forged ahead and we’ve certainly enjoyed it........ Click here to read more →
Happy New Year!
Although I will not be too long-winded, there is much to consider as we turn from 2021 to 2022. Here’s to wishing you WELL as we usher in this New Year. I find myself optimistic at each “new year” . . .like many of you. So many unknowns, possibilities, and potential in our world. The years pass quickly, but it is fun to see each unfold. As the pandemic moves toward “endemic”, we all are trying hard to remove it from the daily norm, but alas, it persists. Like other Januarys, Duke and Gonzaga are in the Top 5 in basketball, Tom Brady’s team looks like a favorite for the Super Bowl, multitudes are headed to the park or gym to fulfill new year’s resolutions, and there is no shortage of “2022 Stock Market Outlooks” for the coming year that mostly say “cautiously optimistic for single digit returns”.......... Click here to read more →
A Fun Article With Some Truths
The stock market can be an intimidating place: it’s real money on the line, there’s an overwhelming amount of information, and people have lost fortunes very quickly. But it’s also a place where thoughtful investors have long accumulated a lot of wealth. The primary difference between those two outlooks is related to misconceptions about the stock market that can lead people to make poor investment decisions. With that in mind, I present to you ten truths about the stock market........ Click here to read more →
Market and Other Thoughts for Late Summer
Someone told me that she generally appreciates what I say in these periodic emails because I tend to not over-bombard with writings and I tend to keep it relevant. As it would be, those ARE my two goals in keeping in touch this way. Opinions always my own, of course, unless quoted. . .just fyi. The old saying is that, in August, Wall Street traders head for the Hamptons and it’s usually a low-volume, somewhat boring month. In this age of remote work and electronic access, I’m not so sure that’s quite the case as in days of old, but I do think much of Wall Street checks out for a few weeks and will check back in after Labor Day, which can have a tendency to get interesting........ Click here to read more →
Midsummer Thoughts
If you took snapshots January 1 and this week, it would look like a boring “modestly up” year for the stock market, so far. Certainly a lot of bouncing and dancing around, but the bottom line is that it has been a reasonably healthy 2021 to-date. The “healthy” aspect is that instead of a handful of stocks carrying the index like in 2020, we have seen much more broad participation from many stocks and sectors. The energy sector has led the way after so poorly performing last year, while technology has been more tepid. Both value and growth have had decent runs. Earnings have been strong overall, not to miss the fact that their year-to-year comparison is based upon........ Click here to read more →
Everything Rally
As a close friend of mine said recently: “This has been the “everything” rally”. He was right. Stocks, real estate, cars (Porsches, in particular), Art, online art (NFTs), crypto, ATVs and outdoor toys, etc, etc. Almost everything has been rising in value over the last year. This week has provided a tiny test of the idea that this wont last forever. In fact, it’s likely the riskier, more lofted stuff that will fall back to earth the most. After owning Bitcoin several years ago in infancy, I am a spectator only to the modern day crypto craze. I am regularly asked what will happen to Bitcoin (and Ethereum and Dogecoin) next and my answer is “No idea”. And the only way I am going to find out is from the sidelines. Earning season has been strong........ Click here to read more →
March Thoughts
In such interesting and different times, some things still change very little – signs of Spring bring good weather, pleasant moods, gorgeous flowers, and March Madness showing up at our doorstep. It was just over a year ago, as we hear everywhere we look, that the Pandemic took hold of our lives. As we holed-up, the financial markets sank into, not the worst collapse ever by any stretch, but the FASTEST fall on record. And then in a time when things looked so bleak, the markets found a bottom and began to rally higher. Then they plodded forward for the remainder of the year and into 2021, defying all odds and prognostications. In truth, it became a market....... Click here to read more →
